Why COP might fail (Back to Politics!)

COP26 is billed as the ‘Last chance Saloon’. But already, 3 days in, two problems

both have the same flaw: the World might be saved by a (huge) sacrifice by single participants.

Biden had a comprehensive USA plan, but Senator Joe Manchin (West Virginia) has wrecked it. One assumes that Sen Manchin is already aware that if COP26 fails, West Virginia will not survive a Global economic collapse. so why does he not see sense? Because coal is West Virginia’s livelihood. Making a huge sacrifice now, to save everybody (including us) a bit later does not seem fair to West Virginia.

Meanwhile, on the very first day. COP26 got off to a flying start: an agreement to end deforestation. But an important signatory, Indonesia, had second thoughts

The same applies as in the West Virginia case: a long term necessity, but starvation this year in Indonesia.

This weblog proposes an unconditional basic income (UBI) as a way to make the necessary measures acceptable to individuals, but this needs to be on a wider scale. It may be that some kind of carrot is the only way West Virginia will agree to what is in their long term interests. Could a payment presumably spread over a period, be paid just to the mining areas affected? Probably not. There needs to be a more general UBI anyway, but it seems unlikely to be brought in in time to save COP26.

It is probably better to leave negotiation to those directly involved. but something, perhaps a combination of carrots and sticks, must be the outcome This is after all is billed as the Last Chance..

The Birth rate per woman in Indonesia is given as  2.3 in 2019 That is below other developing nations, but well above the European average circa 1.5 (UK 1.6).The Indonesian birth rate has plummeted from 5.5 per woman in 1970, but it has stabilized, and is still above replacement (2.1).

This weblog tries to explain how an unconditional basic income (UBI) would allow individuals to contemplate otherwise unthinkable measures to reduce ecological damage. In the cases of West Virginia and Indonesia, this principle needs to be applied at a state or national level.

The transition will have to be managed, but in return for saving the rainforest, Indonesia (whose birth rate per woman is already lower than most other nation at a similar stage in development) must be offered an incentive for a further fall to replacement level.

If this offer is accepted, it could form a template for offers to other developing nations, some with much higher birth rates than Indonesia. There is the problem of affordability, but are those who refuse to pay ready for the consequences? Is this the Last Chance Saloon or not?

 Is it too much to hope that this adaptation of the UBI principle becomes the narrative at what remains of COP26?

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